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COVID-19 Seroprevalence
This map shows the estimated COVID-19 seroprevalence, the proportion of the population with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 (indicating past infection), in each state. Download State Data for 10/26/2020 Download Static Image for 10/26/2020
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Outbreak Tool Methodology
Download PDF Model Overview The COVID-19 Outbreak Detection Tool is designed to detect recent county-level COVID-19 outbreaks and predict how fast an outbreak would spread in each county in the United States. Using a machine learning approach, the tool estimates the doubling time of COVID-19 cases in each county by accounting for reported COVID-19…
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Equations
Export 4/13 {source}<math xmlns:mml=”http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML” xmlns:m=”http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/officeDocument/2006/math”><mi>S</mi><mo>(</mo><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow><mo>)</mo><mi> </mi><mo>: </mo></math>{/source} {source} Number of susceptible individuals at time <math xmlns:mml=”http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML” xmlns:m=”http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/officeDocument/2006/math”><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></math>{/source} {source}<math xmlns:mml=”http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML” xmlns:m=”http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/officeDocument/2006/math”><mi>S</mi><mo>(</mo><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow><mo>)</mo><mi> </mi><mo>: </mo></math>{/source} {source} Initial population of the state{/source} {source}<math xmlns:mml=”http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML” xmlns:m=”http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/officeDocument/2006/math”><mi>E</mi><mo>(</mo><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow><mo>)</mo><mi> </mi><mo> : </mo></math>{/source} {source} Number of exposed (latent) individuals at time <math xmlns:mml=”http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML” xmlns:m=”http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/officeDocument/2006/math”><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow></math>{/source} {source}<math xmlns:mml=”http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML” xmlns:m=”http://schemas.openxmlformats.org/officeDocument/2006/math”><mi>I</mi><mo>(</mo><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow><mo>)</mo><mo> : </mo></math>{/source} {source} Number of diagnosed infectious individuals at time…
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Policy Simulator Methodology
Download PDF Model overview We used a validated mathematical model, the COVID-19 Simulator (www.covid19sim.org), to model the epidemiology of COVID-19 at the state-level in the U.S. Since May 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has incorporated our model outputs in its weekly COVID-19 forecasts.1 COVID-19 Simulator is a compartmental SEIR2 model with…
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Team
Principal Investigators Turgay Ayer, PhDGeorge Family Foundation Early Career Professor &Associate Professor, Georgia Institute of TechnologyH. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering Jagpreet Chhatwal, PhD (contact PI)Associate Professor, Harvard Medical SchoolDirector, Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH)Institute for Technology Assessment Benjamin P. Linas, MDAssociate Professor, Infectious DiseasesBoston University School of Medicine Research Team Alec Aaron,…
